NBA legend says the team with the best player usually wins the series. In a five-person sport, the best player dominates.
This theory predicts Luka Dončić's Dallas Mavericks winning the NBA Finals, despite Jayson Tatum's Boston Celtics winning 14 more regular-season games.
Dončić reached third place in MVP vote.
Despite Tatum's superior defense, Dončić played more effectively, averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game. Advanced statistics support Dončić.
Dončić is often considered a better player than Tatum, despite the limited difference between a five-time and three-time first-team pick.
Prior to the season, more general managers expressed interest in starting with Dončić than Tatum.
Using each season's MVP race to determine the best player, the superior player has won 41 of 68 NBA Finals (60%) since 1956. Since 2000, the MVP winner has gone 12-11 in Finals games.
If you eliminate Charles Barkley's 1993 MVP win, which cost his Phoenix Suns a loss to Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls, you could argue that the best player won 56 of 68 championships (82.4%).